Am I a Sports Savant or Simpleton? Week 4 Forecast: Colts at Seahawks

The Indianapolis Colts travel to Seattle to play their toughest game of the season.  Their newfound confidence will be tested in prime time in perhaps the loudest arena in the NFL.  QB Jacoby Brissett continues to impress and CB Vontae Davis (pictured) has healed enough to make his first appearance in a suddenly solid Colts secondary.

I wish this game was a couple weeks later in the schedule, but here is what I see unfolding this evening at CenturyLink Field:

  1. K Adam Vinatieri has never attempted a 50+ yard field goal against the Seahawks.  That will change tonight as he will attempt and make a field goal from 50+ yards in this game.  On a side note, Vinatieri was born in 1972 and the Seahawks were born in 1976.
  2. Colts RB Robert Turbin was drafted by Seattle in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft and played 3 seasons and 48 games for them.  During those games he accounted for 1,355 yards from scrimmage and earned a Super Bowl ring.  Turbin will enjoy his homecoming and will score a touchdown against his former team.
  3. Seattle QB Russell Wilson has thrown 115 passes this season and has yet to throw an interception.  He has only thrown 45 picks in 83 career games so he is very good at protecting the ball.  The Colts young secondary gets their leader back in CB Davis and will celebrate by snagging one of Wilson’s passes.

It is easy to make a long list of why the Colts will not win in Seattle.  Every computer model and analyst give the Colts almost no chance to pull out this game.  In fact, as of now the Colts are 13 point underdogs which is easily the largest spread in the NFL this week.  Add in Brissett making his first NFL start on the road, Pagano is still chopping wood, and the Colts offensive line is still struggling and it seems inevitable that the Colts are in for a long evening and plane ride home.  Forget conventional wisdom!  This game is not being played on paper and the Colts D makes a big play to put Vinatieri in position to ice the game and Turbin celebrates on his old turf after a Colts 24-20 win.

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